Transcript of China and the Middle East in a multipolar world: Myths and Realities
In Beijing, a discussion by Palestinian, Jordanian, Egyptian, and Turkish ambassadors to China join Middle Eastern and Chinese scholars in the presence of HRH Prince Turki bin Faisal Al Saud.
On May 25th and 26th, 2024, the 10th China and Globalization Forum, hosted by the Center for China and Globalization (CCG), co-organized by the China-United States Exchange Foundation (CUSEF), and supported by the Academy of Contemporary China and World Studies (ACCWS), was held in Beijing.
Below is the full transcript of the special forum "China and the Middle East in a multipolar world: Myths and Realities." CCG has published its video recording on Chinese social media, where it remains accessible. The video recording has also been posted on CCG's YouTube channel.
The transcript hasn’t been reviewed by the speakers and may contain errors.
The keynote speakers are, by order of appearance:
WANG Huiyao, Founder and President, CCG
Mohamed Amersi, Founder and Chairman, The Amersi Foundation
Victor GAO, Vice President, CCG
The panel discussion was moderated by Victor GAO, in the presence of His Royal Highness Prince Turki bin Faisal Al Saud. The panelists are, by order of appearance:
Hussam Al Husseini, Ambassador of Jordan to China
Fariz Mehdawi, Ambassador of Palestine to China
Assem Mohammed Hanafi, Ambassador of Egypt to China
Ismail Hakki Musa, Ambassador of Türkiye to China
Hiba Qasas, Executive Director, Principles for Peace (P4P) Foundation Intervention
Yousuf Al Bulushi, Assistant Professor of Global & International Studies, University of California, Irvine
NIU Xinchun, Vice President of Ningxia University; Former Director and Associate Research Professor, the Institute of Middle East Studies, China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR)
Flavius Caba-Maria, President, Middle East Political and Economic Institute, Romania
WANG Huiyao, Founder and President, CCG
His Royal Highness Prince Turki, distinguished ambassadors, all the dear participants, and also Mohamed Amersi, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, it's a great honor for us as the Center for China and Globalization to co-organize with Amersi Foundation this Middle East special occasion this afternoon.
Today, we are in a very turbulent and challenging world. We're having a lot of challenges, a lot of difficulties. We have come to a crossroads. Going forward, how we can steer through this challenging period, I think we need the wisdom of all of you.
I would like to say that the Center for China and Globalization, as one of the top 100 think tanks worldwide, would like to facilitate dialogue, exchanges, and proposals for peace and stability.
First of all, maybe I can just mention some Chinese perspectives. I think China has made it clear, that China opposes all acts of harm to civilians, damage to civil facilities, and violation of international law. No civilians should become a target of attack and the safety of international aid workers should not come under threat. I think the Chinese government's position resonates deeply with our shared human values and principles of international law. In this perspective, we hope to protect innocent lives in the crossfire. We also hope that we can have an immediate ceasefire as soon as possible because we are worried about what happened in the Middle East.
China, being the largest trading nation with almost all the Middle Eastern countries and Gulf countries, has a vested interest in this part of the world. So I think that it's really important to do that. And I think China's Foreign Minister Mr. Wang Yi actually stated at the UN when China was the rotating chair of the Security Council, that China wants to have a global peace summit on the Middle East on what can be done to solve this crisis. China has also demonstrated enormous willingness and availability to safeguard international peace, particularly in the Gulf region.
I'm very encouraged by Chinese cooperation, for example, to bring Saudis and Iranians to Beijing. As Prince Turki mentioned yesterday, China facilitated this friendly agreement reached between Saudis and Iranians. So I hope we'll continue the momentum and we'll try to do something in this regard.
Further, we're here in Beijing again and we're having a Track II think tank dialogue. That's exactly where we can have more ideas, proposals, and suggestions. We have all the ambassadors, quite a number of them from the region. We're very pleased to welcome them. I think this form this afternoon can serve as a good discussion platform to promote understanding and to make a lot of good suggestions. For example, how can we make the two-state solution viable in the current crisis in the Middle East?
As a think tank, we hope that we can facilitate, we can be more engaged and we hope that this afternoon's think tank conference will be useful. I'm very pleased all the senior representatives from all those countries in the Middle East and also representatives from China are at this afternoon section. Thank you all for coming out of your busy schedule. We look forward to further discussions. Also, we're going to summarize all the good discussions and we'll report to relevant our policymakers in China. So once again, thank you all very much for coming and I hope you have a very fruitful discussion. Thank you.
Mohamed Amersi, Founder and Chairman of the Amersi Foundation
Salamun Alaykum. Bismillah ar-Rahman ar-Raheem. Good afternoon. Your Royal Highness Prince Turki, Your Excellencies, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, it's a pleasure to welcome you all here to the Middle East Forum today. It is the very first of its kind here in China with CCG, and I'm grateful to my partner and friend, Henry Wang, for making this happen today.
The original theme of the forum was going to be simple: What does the Middle East want from China? And what does China want from the Middle East? But we decided in our internal discussions that this theme was akin to starting to run before learning how to walk. Hence, this forum is designed to be a getting-to-know event and a learning exercise for the region, for the Chinese, and for its protagonists as to what China means for the region. It is designed to allow each party to get to know the other. Building on this, we believe that in a couple of years, if we continue, this narrative will sharpen and the give and the asks will become much clearer.
As the Middle East is presently enduring a tumultuous upheaval, we decided to focus this forum on the burning geopolitical issues on which there is an impasse and where China, I believe, can play a major role in helping build bridges. A case in point, which Henry mentioned and which is not lost on the region is China's overarching mediating role in the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran. China, I believe, will want to act in order to resolve conflicts, not only manage conflicts. The worst is in the process all the time of managing conflicts, but never getting to resolve conflicts.
But China is no stranger to the Middle East. It has significantly increased its economic, political, and to a lesser extent, security footprint in the Middle East in the past decade, becoming the biggest trade partner and external investor for many countries in the region. China still has a limited appetite for challenging the U.S.-led security architecture in the Middle East or playing a significant role in regional politics. Yet the country's growing economic presence is likely to pull it into wider engagement with the region in ways that could significantly affect vested interests.
For now, China's relationship with the Middle East largely revolves around energy demand and the Belt and Road Initiative launched in 2013. In 2015, China officially became the biggest global importer of crude oil, with almost half of its supplies coming from the Middle East. As a strategically important crossroads for trade routes and sea lanes linking Asia to Europe and Africa, the Middle East is important for the future of the BRI. This is designed to place China at the center of a global trade network. In this respect, the BRI not only promotes trade and connectivity but also creates an economic system outside Washington's control.
On the other hand, there is a widening debate in China whether greater involvement is necessary to protect Chinese economic interests. An increasing number of Chinese experts are now arguing that their country should shed its image as a free rider and increase its military presence in the region. Beijing is also motivated to do so by its desire to challenge U.S. dominance in the Middle East and other regions. Nevertheless, for the moment, the U.S. remains the indispensable power in the Middle East. This is why China has been careful not to antagonize the West on sensitive issues such as Iran. While it has criticized China for being a free rider in the region, the U.S. would most likely oppose any Chinese military presence in the region. Although I'm advised that there has been limited presence militarily in Somalia, that is a little bit far away from the core Middle East.
Middle Eastern countries, on the other hand, face a similar dilemma. China's capacity to invest, build infrastructure, and provide public services in developing countries has drawn significant attention from the Middle Eastern states and heightened their expectations. Many of these states perceive China as a useful tool in their strategies to diversify, not just economically but politically at the moment of apparent U.S. retrenchment from the region. However, Middle Eastern states are also aware of China's limitations as a security provider for now and therefore are carefully managing their relationships with the U.S. Although many Middle Eastern countries support the principle of non-interference and condemn Western intervention in this region, this principle is likely to become a major weakness for China in the near future unless China decides to roll up its sleeves and engage far more proactively.
Middle Eastern countries also have a certain wariness about China's real value as a partner. For now, China seems content with its relatively passive role in the region, though both direct investment and development support are, as I said, growing. Its economic importance to the region has the potential to outweigh that of the U.S. And Europe. And Middle Eastern countries, particularly those afflicted by conflict—and here, I mean, Yemen, Syria, and eventually Gaza—will all depend a lot on Chinese investments to help rebuild their infrastructure.
I will end here now, but before we start the panels, I would like to outline the three panels that we chose to be the defining geopolitical issues. The first one relates to the perpetual, irretractable conflict between Israel and Palestine. Do we have a solution? Can China act as an unbiased broker, given the deep vested interest that the West has in the outcome, to find a solution for this, which is not only a short-term fix but a long-term solution
The second problem relates to the nuclear file. If Iran decides to go nuclear and the West allows it to do so, what are the implications? Will Saudi Arabia also naturally want to become nuclear? If Saudi Arabia does, will the UAE, Qatar, or Turkey want to be the same? And then, given His Royal Highness's view, which I share passionately, that we want to have a nuclear-free Middle East, we are going to have the Middle East awash with nuclear weapons, but the idea of a nuclear-free Middle East is also predicated on Israel giving up its weapons of mass destruction. Can it do so? Will it do so? And how?
The third panel is an issue that is very close to my own heart, which is the role of non-state actors in the Middle East. This is a phenomenon that is happening elsewhere, but it is particularly specialized in the Middle East. Should this be allowed? Can they be regulated? Can you have a situation where you have power but without responsibility and accountability? Does the role of the non-state actors undermine the development of countries to be viable, independent, sovereign states? So those are the three panels that we will focus on. I'm hoping that the takeaway from this will be that at the Arab-China Forum taking place at the foreign minister level next week, some of the learnings from today will help fix the discussions and the debates. So now I will introduce my colleague, Victor Gao, who will moderate the first panel. Victor?
Victor GAO, Vice President, CCG
Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Allow me to extend an extraordinary and special welcome and appreciation to His Royal Highness, the prince from Saudi Arabia. And welcome to all the friends and guests. Allow me to, first of all, call all the panels in our panel to the stadium. I will call them by name and please come up and there are chairs for you.
So let us start right away. I think for yesterday and today we have and we will talk about many things, but for me, nothing can be more troubling and more sobering than the topic we are going to talk about. That is the Israeli-Palestinian war, the war in Gaza, and the killing of so many innocent people. I understand the latest number is that more than 36,000 civilians have been killed, 75% of them are women and children, and many of them are actually pregnant women. So I think atrocities are for everyone to see. The fact that universities in the United States are in revolt, many capital cities in the world are in revolt, all indicate that mankind cannot tolerate such a level of cruelty against civilians, whatever the justification.
Therefore, I think we have this very interesting and rare panel to talk about what they think about the root causes of this Israeli Palestinian problem, the Gaza war, as well as what will come out of that because it cannot continue forever. Sooner or later, it needs to be stopped. And then in this process, I think there are so many issues that we can think about.
Allow me just to think aloud. For example, what will be the two-state solution? Many countries are supporting that. Some other countries are opposing that. Israel is opposing that. What will be the prospect of the so-called Confederation of Israel and Palestine, whether that's ever possible? What will be the future of the Abraham Accord? Is the Abraham Accord dead or at least for the moment? Or will it be resurrected after the war between Israel and the Palestinians, mostly in Gaza, but not just in Gaza, but elsewhere in the occupied Palestinian territories? What will be the future involving Israel on the one hand and Palestine on the other hand? And then I think, just now Mr. Aversi mentioned the nuclear prospect. What will be done about the nuclear weapons that Israel is now threatening and one of its ministers even threatened to use the nuclear bomb on Gaza, for example? What will be the chain reaction involving many other countries in that part of the world?
Now the other question, we talked about the AI revolution in other panels. When we look at the Middle East, especially the war between Israel and Palestine and the prospect of the spilling over of the war to many other countries, the escalation, for example, don't forget the AI revolution is happening as we speak, and it will completely change mankind and the world we live in. So I think we need to bring a sense of urgency to the Middle East. I hope no country in the Middle East will be left behind by this faster-moving, profound AI revolution.
I will stop here. We have a list. If you do not mind, I will ask each of the ambassadors to address this issue first and then we will turn on the scholars and the academics to listen to what wise words they have. Is that all right? Yes. Thank you. So how do we start? Should we start with the ambassador from Jordan? I visited Jordan in March for the first time, and I treated the ambassador as a good personal friend. Ambassador, you have the floor first. Up to six minutes, but we are flexible. Thank you.
Hussam Al Husseini, Ambassador of Jordan to China
Thank you so much, Victor. Good afternoon, Your Royal Highness, and good afternoon, everybody. I'd like to thank also the CCG and Amersi Foundation for inviting me to this forum—a very timely and very important time for all of us, especially in the Middle East. I'd like to take advantage of the theme of this panel, and I would like to limit myself to this frame. This issue of the resolution of the conflict has so many angles, has so many areas to discuss, and it will not be easy to cover in a panel like today's, but I will limit myself to certain thoughts that I would like to share with all of you today and hopefully, I can represent some of the facts that we need to touch on.
Talking of the resolution for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, sounds like there is still no solution and we should be working on one. This is, first of all, not true. The basic UN Security Council Resolutions 242 and 338 put the foundation for the settlement of this conflict and the framework for the solution.
What is now known as the two-state solution is also not new. A peace process was launched in the 90s, in the wake of the first Intifada of 1987. Also, in the wake of the Second Gulf War that ended in 1990, a roadmap was put and agreed upon by the Israeli-Palestinians, and the state of Palestine was supposed to be declared in 1998. In 2002, the Arabic Initiative launched by Saudi Arabia was adopted by the Arab states and then by the OIC member states, opening the road for normalization of relations between Israel and the Arab and Muslim States, provided that a state of Palestine is declared independent on the borders of 1967 with Jerusalem as its capital.
So what is needed is the implementation of the commitments that were agreed upon. Since 1996, the year Yitzhak Rabin was assassinated by an Israeli terrorist who belonged to the Israeli extremist terrorist right-wing groups, Netanyahu was elected and Israel turned into a new policy of regress on his commitments, sabotaging every attempt to keep the process on the right track and to lead for Palestinian statehood. The new policy aimed at buying time while trying to create new facts on the ground by means of settlements, expansion, confiscating land, and undermining Palestinian authority.
In a dangerous way, Netanyahu pursued these goals by aligning himself with extremist, racist, right-wing Israeli factions, including the terrorist settlement movement. Now the whole Israeli population are hostage of Netanyahu's policies and are captors of these racist extremist right-wing groups and their manifesto. 30 years of such policies were enough to push many of the Israeli peace camp supporters out of the country and even diminish the voices of peace among those who are left. That's how such radical governments have been elected and reelected ever since.
So what we are facing is not a lack of solution, but rather an almost 30 years of Israeli relentless efforts to avoid the only solution that can bring peace and stability to the region.
The recent war in Gaza has shown clearly the racist criminal mentality that is running the show now in Israel and the long-term goals of its right-wing and radical leadership. But the shift in the international support to Israel and the wake-up to support the Palestinian cause is a clear manifestation also of the new reality Israel has to face now. The failure of its policy is now being defined by international court systems, be it ICC or ICJ, and all their reading spell the word "criminal" and genocidal nature of the Israeli deeds and policies.
The accountability that is waiting for its regime and even for those who are complicit with it by means of their blind, immoral support will be a serious test to the credibility of the international community and its rule of law. Failing to do justice to Palestinians now will give a blow to humanity and world order.
The difference this time is that the world is watching what's happening now without the usual Western media manipulation and falsification effects. The youths worldwide are taking charge of the new era and definitely, the future. And they don't seem to buy the old Zionist narrative of the antisemitic victim-playing scenario, which is not selling anymore. The most important is that all these protests, as seen worldwide against Israel and in support of the Palestinians, are joined by Jews and even Holocaust survivors with a clear message to the Israeli regime, not in our name.
In conclusion, any attempt by Israel and any other state to delude or to alter the solution for the conflict to less than just, comprehensive, and permanent with a Palestinian state on the borders of June 4, 1967, will not create peace or stability in the region and the world. The stage we are in now indicates that any effort to deviate from this fact is doomed to fail and will only escalate and prolong the conflict, creating more hatred and more darkness to the future of the region.
The call to dismantle Palestinian militant groups should be paralleled with the call to dismantle the Israeli extremist and racist groups, including the terrorist settlement movement, which by the way are also militant and armed. Settlement activities in the West Bank should also stop and it should be clear that settlements are all illegal according to international law and should be evacuated and dismantled. Not mentioning, of course, the issue of Jerusalem, which has been identified by all the international law, including the UNESCO resolution, especially the holy area, the Noble Sanctuary of Jerusalem, which is under the custodianship of the Hashemite family of Jordan, is a purely Islamic property and has no original or historical Jewish root to it.
The international community bears great responsibility, both moral and legal, with regard to the Palestinian cause and plight, and it should live up to its responsibility. The international community should not be misled by the illusion that the new situation being created by Israel in the West Bank and Gaza could be negotiated into new arrangements or possible solutions. It will not. It will only delay the resolution and prolong the conflict.
Like the apartheid regime in South Africa, the Zionist regime should be also dismantled, allowing to free the Jews and Palestinians alike from this racist regime and its domination. We have to be reminded that like they did with apartheid, the international community in 1978 classified Zionism as racist and outlawed it in a United Nations General Assembly resolution. I stop here, Mr. Moderator, and I thank you for giving me the floor. Thank you so much.
Victor GAO, Vice President, CCG
Thank you very much, Ambassador Husseini. When I visited Jordan in March, I realized more than 50% of the people in Jordan were actually Palestinians who came to Jordan over the decades because their land was occupied. One question often asked by the international community after the outbreak of the war between Israel and the Palestinians in Gaza is why couldn't Egypt and Jordan accept refugees from Gaza. I asked everyone I could find, and I think the answer is that those Palestinians should not be driven out of Palestine in Gaza because maybe the Israelis just want to seize the land eventually after driving the Palestinians away from Gaza. So I think the situation is very complicated—how to make sure that the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people will be protected, the two-state solution eventually can be achieved, and both the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people and the legitimate rights of the Israeli people, including Palestinians living in Israel, can be protected. That's the challenge that we are all faced with.
Now allow me to give the floor to His Excellency, Fariz Mehdawi, Ambassador of Palestine to China. I know many Palestinians not only working and living in Beijing but also elsewhere. Last year, I was very touched to see that the president of the Palestinian Authority visited China, receiving the highest honor from the Chinese government and the Chinese government. And President Xi Jinping gave the same high-level protocol to the visiting Palestinian President. I was told many Palestinians in different parts of the world were moved to tears to see that the state of Palestine is treated as a full-fledged sovereign independent country in China. I hope more countries will do so by China dealing with Palestine and fully recognizing the sovereignty and independence of Pakistan. Ambassador, you have the floor, please.
Fariz Mehdawi, Ambassador of Palestine to China
Thank you, my dear friend, Victor. I'm deeply honored to participate with those colleagues of mine. We are quite honored by the presence of His Excellency, Prince Turki bin Faisal, whose presence here talks a lot about how much the Palestinian issue has been all the time taken care of by our Arab brothers as a whole. I'm speaking after His Excellency, Ambassador Hussam Husseini, who spoke a lot of what I can say also. So that would save me time.
Talking about Palestine-China is not something very new. If we have to recall the fact that the first ever embassy that has been opened anywhere in the world outside the Arab world was in Beijing as early as 1965 because occupation for China was not something that they don't know about.
So what we have is a foreign occupation. Actually, to be specific, what we have is something that almost ended in the whole world, a model that we call, in political sense, "settler colonialism." It's not any ordinary colonialism, but colonialism which is meant to replace, displace, and create a new fact and reality in another region, bringing Jews from somewhere and transplanting them artificially in a total (new) environment. This model is no more anywhere in the world. It had succeeded in Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and the United States where you had such a model, but not in other places like South Africa or somewhere else. Still, after 100 years, the project is not successful.
In Palestine, as we speak, between the river and the sea, there is almost 51% indigenous Palestinians. And the new immigrants keep coming. For almost 100 years, they did not succeed in uprooting our presence. So what we have here is a very special model, which is unique in its nature if we have to go that deep. It is that simple and that complicated as well.
That's why we see, as we speak, settlements being built every day. The number of settlers coming from wherever is building this project. This project is like cancer, which keeps on going on as we speak. Since 1967, when the whole West Bank and Gaza were almost free, we are now talking about 1 million settlers who were spreading all over the whole West Bank, including Jerusalem, besieging everything. So this is something dangerous and it has to stop.
Luckily enough, if we had just to look around us right now, I mean, how come that a few countries in the Caribbean Plate would recognize the State of Palestine? How come a Prime Minister and his Minister of Defense will be issued an arrest warrant while they are sitting still in government? This is something very unique. We don't have so many prime ministers that will be issued an arrest warrant. People do not go normally to the court unless diplomacy has already failed. To reach this point that the whole world wants this state, to reach a point where the Prime Minister and his Minister of Defense are going to be issued an arrest warrant. The ICG is talking about possible genocide, as we speak, in 2024. This is something phenomenal. So we are here against a situation that is crying for solution, crying to be addressed.
The fact is that China is also coming forward. We had a meeting between Hamas and Fatah just a few weeks ago. China is so busy with its own region, but now it's coming on board. After two days, we'll have the ministerial meeting. All the Arab states are coming here with another four heads of state; those of Tunisia, Egypt, Emirates, and Bahrain will be here after two days. So we have a good understanding between China and the Arabs about what the solution would be. It's the same solution the whole world has been crying for since a long time ago.
Let me just remind our friends here, just to connect things and touch together. We have declared our independence from one side in 1988. Our Arab brothers have been seeking a solution since 1948 and were not answered properly. That has produced refugees and instability. It continued in 1967 with the total annexation of Old Palestine. And still, the resolution that His Excellency Ambassador Hussam was referring to, 242, was issued in 1967. It could have been addressed. Israel didn't want to leave any territory. They would like to absorb and swallow all of Palestine. That's a fact. These are all facts.
The late King Fahd of Saudi Arabia was proposing a solution as early as 1981. [He] was not answered positively. Israel has been given a lot of carrots and incentives to reach the obvious solution, which is the two-state. [It] never wanted to do that.
Up to now, as we speak, if you go and check with Israeli society, I can tell you, more than two-thirds of the society don't want even peace right now. It's not only Netanyahu and it's not only his cabinet. The Israeli society, unfortunately, is going even more extreme and more extreme. [It] never had that tendency to reach peace, except in only a few times which were just like short honeymoons during the Rabin period where they wanted to come.
As we speak, we need an international community that needs to use sticks instead of carrots. The signal should be more than clear that the whole world is fed up with this arrogance. Israel should not be indulged, should not be enabled, because we have to admit the fact that if it was not for the enablers of Israel, Israel couldn't even survive the last confrontation in Gaza. We know who is financing. We know who's protecting at the diplomatic level. And we know who is even supplying arms to the extent that it became a very important nuclear power in the whole region.
So Israel needs to come to terms with reality, and this needs only to be managed by the international community. It will not come from within. Let's remember the regime in South Africa, which was apartheid in nature, did not come to terms without enough pressure, without boycott. And this is already happening as we speak. It's happening at the public level. It's happening at the diplomatic level. It's happening at the legal level. So there is enough good reason to be helpful that we are about to reach the climax.
Meanwhile, I can assure we as Palestinians have learned the lesson. We are not going anywhere. We are going to stick to our land. We are supported and being given every kind of support by our Arab brothers, number one, by the whole international community, by an important ally like China. I think that is going to accumulate to reach the point of the pinnacle. That will happen.
And I promise you that our people are strong and assertive to remain. We have the political address. There is a State of Palestine. Those countries who admit this country called Palestine are now 147. Maybe next week they will become something like 160. So the whole world wants the two-state solution and it is going to happen. Thank you very much.
Victor GAO, Vice President, CCG
Thank you very much, Your Excellency Ambassador. I would say there is a real true litmus test as to whether a country is a true friend of the Arab countries or the Muslim countries and of the Islamic world at large. That is whether that country truly and really supports the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people and the establishment of an independent and sovereign state of Palestine. And I'm very proud that China fits that criteria. China has always been staunchly, without any reservation, supporting Palestine for its independent sovereign state and has been maximizing its support for the Palestinian people.
On the other hand, I also personally believe that the real protection of the legitimate rights of the Israeli people is the same as the real protection of the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people. That's why this two-state solution is a must. And I analyze the U.S. government. Even the U.S. government says it supports the two-state solution, even though how to achieve that differs from one country to another.
Allow me to give the floor to His Excellency Assem Mohammed Hanafi, the ambassador of Egypt to China.
Assem Mohammed Hanafi, Ambassador of Egypt to China
First of all, I would like to extend, of course, my greetings to His Royal Highness Prince Turki and all the attendees. I'd like to thank CCG for this invitation to this important discussion on the Middle East and the scenarios pertaining to this protracted, prolonged, and intractable conflict region since 1948.
I would like to inform my colleagues and distinguished brothers Fariz and Hussam that the solution is there. I mean, it's very simple. There's an occupation, and the occupation, sooner or later, will come to an end. Of course, we'd like a peaceful means of ending the conflict.
There have been so many rounds of war in which Egypt, of course, was at the core of these military confrontations. Since the 70s, Egypt has heralded the peace process with Israel. But the fact remains that there is a core issue in the Middle East, which is the occupation of Palestinian territories and, of course, an endangered Palestinian population from this Israeli escalation now in the war in Gaza.
The right-wing tendency in Israel is alarming. It breaks so many aspirations for a just peace and this two-state solution that we all aspire to. We all hope now that the international community is coming to the realization, the pressure on Israel is after all a very much-needed exercise. We are seeing an enraged public opinion in the West—all these protests that we have seen, the ICJ rulings which are unprecedented, and the increasing recognition of the State of Palestine by many Western countries. This is all a very positive factor that we can count on to bring some pressure on the Israeli government to come to reason and see even a way to secure Israelis. There is no security for Israel as long as there is occupation, as long as a marginalized, impoverished, and devastated population lies next to it. This is what Egypt has always advised Israelis: to come to reason, to see a way out of this, and that this increased extremism will only nurture and feed into more extremism in the region.
Again, the international community as well as the regional community have come to realization. But a strong, stable, and economically viable Egypt is a credit and is a force for good for stability, a pivot for stability in the troubled hotspots along the borders of Egypt from the east, south, and northwest. Investing in a strong Egypt will only bring some needed stability to this region.
As for China's role, we have seen an increased Chinese engagement in the Middle East, and this is a commendable step. China has always been there supporting our rights, upholding the principles that we all (uphold): the shared wish for lasting peace and lasting justice. And there is an increased Chinese role that we all welcome. The recent facilitation of the inter-Palestinian reconciliation is a good step forward.
We all look forward to a very successful ministerial conference—the China-Arab ministerial conference taking place at the end of this week. Of course, Egypt will always continue to play its role and try to use all its tools towards the greater cause of the Palestinian people and the stability of the Middle East in general. Thank you again for giving me this chance.
Victor GAO, Vice President, CCG
Thank you very much, Ambassador. Thank you. We all know the importance of Turkey, especially in this Israeli-Palestinian conflict. And I think in the coming months and the years, the role of Turkey will be even more important. After all, Turkey is a member of NATO and it has very close relations with the United States and all the other NATO member states. What Turkey will do in terms of the relations between Israel and Palestine, I think, will be a very important thing. Now allow me to give the floor to His Excellency Ambassador Musa of Turkey after we talked about Egypt. Turkey and Egypt are both very important in this conflict between Israel and Palestine. Your Excellency, you have the floor, please. Yes.
Ismail Hakki Musa, Ambassador of Türkiye to China
Mr. President, thank you. Allow me to thank also my colleagues, Ambassador Husseini, Fariz, and Assem because they shared too much insight on this question. This will ease my task today.
But when we are talking about the Palestinian question, I think that first of all, we have to put the rationale as you [Palestinian ambassador] did it. This is a question of occupation. Let's underline it. This question didn't emerge several months ago. Far from that. For decades and decades, the lands of Palestinians are stolen by people called the settlers. In fact, they are robbers. This is the truth. So we have to bear in mind that first. This is the origin of the question.
We have too many resolutions of the United Nations. They are binding, but there is no efficient mechanism to implement them, including 242. Who'll implement them? That is something lacking at the international level. We were discussing global governance this morning. So how can we improve global governance? This is also an important part of our question.
Today, what's going on? The ongoing attacks of Israel on civilians have taken an unprecedented toll in Gaza. We can rather speak of genocide. Gaza has turned uninhabitable. We have to be clear on that. With these unprecedented attacks of the Israeli army against civilians, you are talking about the legitimate right of Israel to defend itself. This is something else. We have to be clear on the terminology. You have an army on the one side, you have the civilians on the other. Is it the legitimate right to defend itself?
Now, this is something that I would mention, Mr. President. Famine has set in. 1.1 million people are practically living in hunger. This is the truth. This is the situation on the ground. International aid organizations are leaving Gaza because neither aid is going at an immediately required scale, nor there is public order to ensure its safe and fair distribution. The Rafah border crossing is closed. Of course, it's under legal record by the International Court of Justice, ICC and other international organizations.
On the political front, the ceasefire, hostage, and prisoner-released negotiations have not borne fruit, unfortunately. This is mainly because Israel rebukes a permanent ceasefire and withdrawal of its military forces from Gaza.
We have been encouraging Hamas to seek a mutually acceptable deal from the very beginning. In that, we have taken certain strides as well. First, Hamas nodded to a phased cessation of hostilities, even a period of silence, to play with the wording. Secondly, they declared readiness to abolish arms if an independent State of Palestine is declared on 1967 borders. This has been a major breakthrough for a fair and lasting settlement to the two-state solution. Unfortunately, we're far from off the target.
On the other hand, Israelis' aversion to diplomacy engendered an international backlash. First, the UN General Assembly overwhelmingly backed the membership of Palestine to the United Nations. Second, and it's good news, 7 additional countries decided to recognize Palestine, including Norway, Spain, Ireland, Barbados, Trinidad and Tobago, the Bahamas, and Jamaica. Currently, more than 140 out of 193 countries have recognized Palestine. This is good news.
At this stage, Mr. President, I would try to give an answer to your question and that of the President during his introductory remarks. We know that (there is) no other solution. This is the two-state solution. How can we make this solution viable?
This seems quite simple, but difficult at the same time. This is the reason why we have been supporting and advancing the idea of a guarantee mechanism. This was highlighted by our Minister for Foreign Affairs several months ago because whatever solution we may reach if there is not an efficient mechanism to supervise the implementation, there won't be a lasting peace and solution in the Middle East.
Let me share with you several words. When it comes to the stance of China, I would be outspoken on it. From the very beginning, I realized that the stance of China, their attitude, opinion, and declaration and ours were more than like-minded. We appreciate the visits of the Special Envoy to the relevant countries, Turkey included. The Special Envoy Zhai Jun was also received by our Minister of Foreign Affairs.
We hope that all these efforts will bring about a peaceful solution during a reasonable time. I say reasonable time because the situation on the ground is really alarming. And we, as Turkey, from the very beginning, were very much involved. You know that our Minister also is part of this contact group composed of the Ministers of Foreign Affairs of regional countries. We hope that this will help the international community to bring about a peaceful solution.
But if there is no pressure on Israel, unfortunately, the solution may take even more time than expected. The pressure is not only diplomatic pressure. We need more than words. For example, what Turkey did since several weeks ago, Turkey stopped any commercial ties and activists with Israel. No imports from Israel, no exports to Israel. This is an example. So we have to try any kind of means in order to push Israel to accept a reasonable stand on that crucial question. Thank you.
Victor GAO, Vice President, CCG
Thank you, ambassador. I'm so happy that we have this occasion to listen very carefully to ambassadors from Jordan, Egypt, Turkey, and Palestine on this very important issue. I think the world has heard a lot about the Russian-Ukrainian war. And I think this war in Gaza is revealing the depth that humanity's suffering can go to. All these atrocities. We really need to do whatever we can to bring this war to an end and bring the suffering of the Palestinians to an end. This is what we need to do. I hope we can have more gatherings like this to listen to the views of these four very important countries.
Now we're running short of time. Therefore, I hope the following four academic representatives will relatively speaking, be strict to the time limit, 5 or 6 minutes each. Now allow me to give the floor to Miss Hiba Qasas, Executive Director of the Principals for Peace (P4P) Foundation in Switzerland. I think she is very well prepared to give a very important speech. But again, I hope you keep in mind the time restraint we now operate under. Thank you very much.
Hiba Qasas, Executive Director, Principles for Peace (P4P) Foundation
Thank you very much. And many thanks to the organizers for hosting us here. I'm going to cut what I was planning to say because a lot of it has been said and I don't like to repeat it. So I'm going to start by situating for a moment the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in the current global situation that we're living in, the reality that we are living in an era of poly-crisis which is straining international institutions and further fragmenting the international system that is already fragmented.
When we think about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the context of the occupation, we can see that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is a case in point in the failure of containment strategies, in a series of ceasefires that continue to be negotiated again and again while we're ignoring the structural drivers of this conflict and the reality of occupation.
So I'm not going to speak about the humanitarian toll of this recent escalation after this recent eruption; I think the ambassadors talked a lot about it. I'm not going to talk about the violations of international humanitarian law, which continue to unfold. I'm not talking about how this context and escalation are compounding intergenerational traumas and how it is creating the ideal conditions for intergenerational wars if we don't move on with a very concrete solution.
What I would like to focus on is a 3×5×5 paradigm. The three first points I'd like to make are around the imperatives and the opportunities that are presented in this very bleak picture that we've been painting on this panel, in the fact that this conflict has reached its pinnacle. The recent events, both with the Oct. 7 attack and the war in Gaza, have shifted tectonic plates significantly. That creates fault lines that we could potentially exploit to find a true solution and a just solution for this conflict. These three points I'll summarize with the following.
The first is that this escalation of conflict was a powerful reminder that the status quo is not tenable. It's not providing security to the Israelis nor providing dignity to the Palestinians. I'm reminded of the fact that one week before Oct. 7, Jake Sullivan wrote an article in the Washington Post talking about the quieter Middle East, saying that the Middle East has not been this quiet for two decades. One week later, we had this whole explosion in the region. So this insinuation that the status code is sustainable is completely questionable.
I think in that, there lies an opportunity that for so long within the Israeli society, there has not been such questioning of the efficacy and efficiency of their security doctrine, which has three key pillars: deterrence, intelligence, and quick decisive victories, which has been at the heart of how the response in Gaza was. And all these three have been shattered since then because they have not managed to deter Hamas. There have not been intelligence findings that would prevent this attack. Also, there has not been a quick, decisive victory because stated objectives have not been achieved.
The second imperative or opportunity that we see, if we look at this from a practitioner and an academic perspective is that there is an opportunity in the renewed international attention because, for decades, there has been this almost unspoken belief that there can be normalization around the questions of the Palestinians; it can be ignored and it's going to be okay. I think that has been also fundamentally shattered with renewed international attention, but also with the recognition that even if states are making their claims in the West, populations are not going along. We see this in terms of the levels of polarization, which is reaching an endemic level in the West.
The third imperative or opportunity lies in the fact of the timing of when is this conflict happening. It's coming at a time when there is a significant legitimacy deficit surrounding the leadership. This is the reality. We know that. But if we look beyond the immediate rallying-around-the-flag reaction, the emotionality, that triggered this rise in the polls—support amongst Israelis for the war in Gaza and also a spike in the support of Hamas. That was the emotional reaction of rallying around the flag, which we see in many parts of the world.
As emotionality is settling in, and you're seeing an increase in rational thinking, this is one of the moments in which there are the highest levels of support for the two-state solution. And I say this without contradicting my dear friend, Ambassador of Palestine, because on the Palestinian side, it's 69% in the latest polls. This is the highest level of support. And in Israeli society, despite the very loud drumbeat of radical voices, 34% of Israelis now believe in the two-state solution. And if you add to it the 20% who are supportive of a regional formula with the Palestinian question being lumped in within that regional formula, that takes us to more than 50%.
I was inspired yesterday by His Royal Highness's remark. He said the present is the future of our near past, and we must plan for the future wisely. I'm Palestinian in origin. I'm based in Switzerland, but I'm a Palestinian. I think there's a growing realization that if we are to look towards the future, we need to embrace key principles and we need the international community to support these principles. I'm going to talk about the first five of these principles, and then I'm going to give you five actions that I'd like to leave you with.
The first principle that should guide a vision for the future is the principle of mutual recognition and acknowledgment of the right of both people for self-determination, independence, and statehood. The second principle is the principle of dignity and equality that should guide how we think about the political solution and ow do we translate the political solution that is put out there. The third principle is security and safety. For so long, security has been talked about within the context of Israelis. The security question is also a security question for Palestinians. Palestinians talk about the need for safety and security. The principle of inclusion and agency, and the principle of trust through healing.
So what I would like to call is five points, and that's the last five that I will leave you with. The first action is to urgently end the war in Gaza, initiate hostage release, and initiate a peace process. The second action is to leverage this moment of international consensus on the necessity for a two-state solution as the founding and only viable path for peace and regional stability—so to frame it within the regional stability context. The third point or action is that this will need an additional formula. It's going to be key. And I think the role of Saudi Arabia will be absolutely fundamental in this, at this critical point. And not only in asking for a path for statehood, but asking and pushing for a practicable path, one with tangible and immediate dividends because Palestinians question the path to statehood if it's not translating into the practicable path.
The fourth recommendation is that this will require a level of international and regional cooperation that we have not seen for a long time. There are solutions and practical formulas to translate the two-state solution into practice immediately. We've learned from stabilization missions and peacekeeping missions. We know what works and where they failed. From the Sahel to Bosnia and Kosovo, there are solutions that can provide an accompaniment that is needed, the security guarantee that is needed, and the state-building support that is needed. These formulas need to be thought through within a regional and international system. Finally, we will need a Marshall Plan for Gaza. We need a Marshall Plan for Gaza and an economic plan for the Palestinian territories in general, all of Palestine because this is the only way that we can counter radicalization and we can lay the grounds for sustainable peace. China's role is very important in three ways: incentives, support, and accountability. Thank you.
Victor GAO, Vice President, CCG
Thank you very much, Ms. Qasas. She has made very good points and I hope our CCG website will publish her article after she finalizes all these new points. And I hope your recommendations will be carefully considered by the relevant countries, etc. Now allow me to give the floor to Mr Yousuf Al Bulushi, who is a researcher in Middle East affairs and political economy in Oman. You have the floor, please.
Yousuf Al Bulushi, Assistant Professor of Global & International Studies, University of California, Irvine
Thank you. First of all, good afternoon, everyone. Deep greetings to His Royal Highness and CCG for inviting us to this wonderful platform. A lot has been said in the floor so far, so it's very difficult to contribute more. But I'll try my best to add the original angle to what has been said. The Palestinian-Israeli conflict was discussed from different angles, either from His Excellency, the ambassadors, or Hiba, wonderfully laid down. I'll just put some thoughts over the regional implication—how the region is perceiving and what implication is exploding from this conflict.
First of all, recently, I was at one of the conferences where I heard shocking information: all violence and wars worldwide were around 30 in 2010. Nowadays, we are witnessing around 50 actual wars going on worldwide. There is a significant increase in violence and war worldwide. The most shocking out of that is that 80% of those wars are happening in the Middle East and Africa. These wars are either internal wars or over-the-border-line wars.
That, by itself, is giving us a clear indication what is the mode of the global community, where they are putting dialogue and peacebuilding aside and they are using arms to confront their conflicts, which is just leading to more and more aggression going around.
On the first point, which we saw especially in the recent escalation that happened in Gaza, one of the real angles that went around the region, but also globalized, is the correction of the narrative of that conflict. We are facing long-lasting narratives of having a small, minor, or just a regional conflict rather than having the impact of this conflict (explained). The first thing is correcting a lot of misinterpretations. The second thing is the wake-up call not only in the Middle East region but also worldwide. We're witnessing that in the West and the Far East as well. I think the importance of this correction of narrative, building up a good solid ground for the coming generation to interact with the conflict with a more accurate narrative.
This leads us to consider what this issue brings to the region. I mean, in general, a part of the conflict itself. I think here I would like to highlight the four growing side issues to this conflict, which are threatening the stability of the region. That's the movement of ideologies and thoughts, the movement of political polarization, the impact of the economic stability and economic root lines, and the proliferation of arming around the region. Maybe I can shed light on those ideas.
The first is ideology, What we are witnessing nowadays, these two models of one taking the peace and the dialogue as the option where we are seeing the OIC committee trying to go around the world and trying to negotiate and build a dialogue around the conflict, which was, I cannot say successful, but I think some fruits were coming through a full identification of Palestine recently. But at the same time, there is the other side of ideology, which is starting to grow in the region, which is radicalism, where we are seeing radicalism as well. It is hiking up significantly. It starts seeing that confrontation is one of the viable solutions. We need to find ways to stop these types of thoughts from moving around the region and try to get back to the political path of peacebuilding and dialogue as being the main solution for all of our conflicts. So what I want to highlight here is that, ideologically, there is a radicalism, thoughts, and ideology that are getting and grasping roots, especially with the new generation, which we need to think of thoughtfully.
The second thing. Politically, we are witnessing as well a huge polarization, either during the conflict itself, who is standing with whom and how significant that standing is, or the other side of polarization is happening. It is in the after-discussion on who will stand with whom.
The third thing is the economic impact, where we are seeing a lot of important checkpoints being impacted. I think a very important checkpoint is being impacted, which is the inflation rates and the movement of goods.
The last very important point is the proliferation of the arms. From the technology point of view, a lot of drone technology is going around, cheap missiles are being available, reaching the potential of nuclear proliferation. I'll stop here.
Victor GAO, Vice President, CCG
Thank you so much. Again, I would recommend that we publish your article on the CCG website because of the shortness of time. Allow me to give the floor to Mr. Niu Xingchun, who is a very renowned researcher and an expert on Middle Eastern affairs with CICIR, a very well-established think tank. Thank you, Mr. Niu. Again, we are running against time.
NIU Xinchun, Vice President of Ningxia University; Former Director and Associate Research Professor, the Institute of Middle East Studies, China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR)
Thank you very much. Brief correction. I'm not working with CICIR anymore. I am now Vice-President of Ningxia University. So this is a new position of mine. I just want to touch upon one point because of the time now on the Israel-Palestine issue, after seven months of conflict.
If we look at it from the international political level or we look at it from the Palestinian level on the ground, it's different because, in international politics, there has never been greater hope for the establishment of a Palestinian state. Now the international community recognizes Palestine as a sovereign country and more and more countries are recognizing it. When Palestine just made an announcement about its establishment of the state, only half of the countries in the world recognized it. Now three-quarters recognize it as an independent and sovereign country. And more and more countries are queuing to recognize Palestine.
In 2001, Palestine applied for United Nations membership for the first time. For a country to join the United Nations, nine out of the fifteen Security Council members must vote in favor, and there must be no vetoes. However, Palestine did not secure the necessary nine votes at that time, so the U.S. did not need to use its veto. Recently, 12 out of the 15 Security Council members voted in favor of Palestine's membership, and the United States was the only country to veto it. So internationally speaking, more and more countries are recognizing the two-state solution and recognizing the Palestinian state. So the prospect is good.
However, if you look at what is happening on the ground in Palestine, the prospect for the Palestinian state is not very good. How can we end the Gaza conflict? We don't know. But I can think of several forms of the end games, but none seem positive for the Palestinian state. First, the Israeli army could reoccupy Gaza after the conflict. However, most Israeli political parties oppose this, and even the Israeli Defense Minister disagrees, making this scenario unlikely. Second, the Israeli military might oversee Gaza’s security post-conflict, while a local entity, unaffiliated with Hamas or Fatah, manages civilian affairs. Israel has not established such an entity, nor is it likely to do so in the future. Third, Arab countries could deploy peacekeeping missions to Gaza, but none have proposed this. They say that the precondition is the two-state solution, but none has come out to say that they want to implement the two-state solution. Therefore, the most likely scenario is that, after the war ends, Israel will control Gaza’s security. Israel troops may enter Gaza whenever they want like what they do in the West Bank. So for a long time to come, there may not be a valid regime in Gaza. What happens on the ground is not that optimistic.
Victor GAO, Vice President, CCG
We can only hope for the best. And I think the international community, the Arab world, the Muslim world, really need to get united to achieve the best case for the Palestinian people, including for the Palestinian people in Gaza. Allow me to give the floor to Mr. Flavius Caba-Maria from Romania. He's also an expert on Middle Eastern issues. Again, please bear in mind the time restraint, and I promise we will work together to get your article published on the website. Thank you very much. You have the floor.
Flavius Caba-Maria, President, Middle East Political and Economic Institute, Romania
Thank you very much. I'll try to stay in waiting 5 minutes as you mentioned. Your Highness Prince Turki, your Excellencies, ladies and gentlemen, firstly, I'd like to congratulate CCG for hosting this event. Also, I'd like to thank you for this opportunity to be here. Thanks, President Henry and Chairman Mohammed Amersi. I would like to be short. I will address three main points, but very short.
The first one is three decades of hope and disappointment. These are some ideas added to what already was said and beyond resolution. The first issue here is that the Oslo Accords concluded in the 90s are dead. Other issues we can discuss, but with the construction in the West Bank of numerous Jewish settlements inhabited mainly by a fundamentalist religious population ready to resist with arms, the Oslo formula has collapsed.
The second. Abraham Accords concluded in 2020 show their insufficiency is being affected by two essential design flaws. On the one hand, the belief that by normalization, Israel's relations with Arab states, especially those with close relations with the U.S. and depending on economic and military support of the U.S., the Palestinian issue will be forgotten, to die out on its own. The second, on the other hand, is the idea that Israel-Arab rapprochement will lead to the creation of an anti-Iranian power concentration that would allow the US to proxy a war with Iran. That calculation turned out to be wrong.
The third point here, the delay in finding a solution amid the multiplication of the Israel-Arab dispute did not lead to an end of the Palestine crisis but rather amplified it, causing what happened on Oct. 7. It erupted much more violently. At the same time, in parallel with the normalization of Arab relations with Israel, the fact that the Arab states, especially those of GCC also normalized relations with Iran does increase the geopolitical maneuvering space and security guarantees. If we regard Israel, the protector was the U.S., with regard to Iran, the mediator was China, and the American-Chinese competition to influence the Middle East ending in the context in favor of Beijing.
Also, this situation has raised the question of whether the Israel-Palestine conflict is beyond resolution in the sense that although several negotiation efforts have been conducted, the conflict is still yet to be solved. There are four main variables that have become the main objective of this conflict resolution attempts: border, security, refugees, and Jerusalem. The lack of compromise and commitment from both parties has caused the conflict to be considered beyond resolution. There should be an additional shift in the domestic politics of both sides to include moderate ideas in order to make conflict resolution possible. The role of a third party, as was already discussed, as an honest broker such as China is also crucial in facilitating or mediating the negotiation.
My second point is the strategic defeats, the need for a contingency plan towards peace. All this time, Israel is losing the media war. This has the character of strategic defeat. Even in its most powerful allies, publicity disapproves of the manner in which Israel's military action in Gaza is proceeding under the current condition for the good of all. An Israeli Government that can conceive a peace proposal must quickly be made. This is not, however, an obligation of means. It is an obligation of results. And no matter how much or did for it, if peace did not settle, it was not enough. At the same time, it is necessary for Israel to redefine its own state identity. Redefining the political and cultural identity of the Israel state would also require reconsideration of its geopolitical identity. Perhaps Israel would find security in the Middle East more quickly if it was no longer perceived as a US vassal while also achieving good relations with the Middle Eastern states.
The third point is the possible solution. We already discussed the two-state solution. If it's possible, the majority of the states are in favor of the two-state solution. The one-state solution is a reality on the ground already discussed by Professor Niu. Currently, we need a plan, the permanent ceasefire political plan. Already, our colleague Hiba mentioned a few possibilities. Therefore, no matter how you look at these things, the Palestinian problem cannot be solved by the use of arms, but only by political means, with equal respect for the principle of self-determination and the right to security for all people. In this context, I emphasize that security is indivisible. At that, no one can find his security at the expense of others' insecurity.
Just to point out, China should step in more. China has historically not involved itself in Middle Eastern politics, not backing on one side or the other. So my conclusion, the game in the Middle East might be changed, but not in the sense of solving a chronic disease by causing an acute crisis, not by replacing the war of proxy with the director of decisive war, but by peace, by equal sharing of power among local and regional countries. Thank you very much.
Victor GAO, Vice President, CCG
Thank you very much. Mr. Flavius Caba-Maria. We ran overtime. I apologize for that, even though we started late. So we talked about lots of issues. We don't have any answer. And the answers lie in the collective world of the international community. One thing is clear to me, at least, the Palestinian people's legitimate rights need to be fully protected and the State of Palestine needs to be fully recognized and become a full member of the United Nations, the sooner the better. That will bring about lasting peace for the Middle East and hopefully lasting peace between the State of Israel and the State of Palestine. Thank you so much.